Last Brent forecasts: Barclays - $ 85; Goldman Sachs - $ 60; Central Bank of the RF - $ 50.

Since mid-2014, Brent crude fell from a level above $ 100 a barrel to below $ 50 a barrel - a huge decline, which contributed to the decline in inflation in advanced economies to a level close to zero - the first time in decades in some countries.

"Many analysts predict that oil prices will stay low for a long time, - the report says Barclays. - A number of decisions of OPEC raised the offer to record levels. This did not happen by chance, but thanks to the conscious actions of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, aimed at slowing down and destroying a significant share of oil production in the United States ".

The number of US rigs increased by 700% between 2009 and 2014. Today the number of active rigs in the US fell below the 2009 level.

Current futures for 2020 traded at around $ 65 per barrel of Brent, while the baseline scenario Barclays anticipates a price of $ 85 per barrel, and even "bear" the company's forecast assumes a higher price than the market expects ($ 75 per barrel).

Analysts at Barclays say that they are working with three unknowns - the demand for oil in China, the return of Iran as a major player on the world oil market and the speed with which production will decline in mature oil fields.

The last of them, the rate of decline in production from existing fields, is the basis of the forecast of Barclays. The reduction is projected to accelerate amid falling prices and investments. As expected, the volume of capital investments will be reduced by 20% globally in 2015 and 5-10% in 2016, which will contribute to reduction of supply. Without investment in the oil and gas industry volume production at mature fields will be reduced accordingly, the volume of supply on the world market - the same as forecast in Barclays. Lack of investment means that new projects will not be started to replace the old.

The probability of falling oil prices to $ 20 per barrel is estimated at less than 50%, depending on the volume of oil that can take custody of the world, the head of the department of Goldman Sachs research on the commodity markets, Jeff Curry.At the same Goldman Sachs expects that by the end of 2016, oil prices will rise to $ 60 a barrel amid market rebalancing.

Russian Central Bank in frustratingly strong dependence to the ruble from the oil prices, based its policy on forecast prices for 2016 near the above-described range. Nabiullina emphasized that at the end of 2016, Russia's economy has a chance to move into positive territory on quarterly basis. These forecasts are based on an average oil price of $ 50 per barrel. If the oil price rises above this value Elvira Nabiullina expects the Russian economy will get a plus even earlier. Tuesday, she pointed out that the forecasts of the IMF and the World Bank for the Russian economy fully coincide with the official forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

G.Hristov / Head of Fundamental Analyzes