The consensus on Wall Street is that Marine Le Pen will not win the presidential election in France, but not everybody is 100 percent committed to that outlook.
One strategist at Goldman Sachs said that the market was too complacent about the upcoming elections in the second biggest economy in the Euro zone.
Bobby Vedral, global head of Goldman's MarketStrats group, sent the note to clients this week with an analysis showing how it's possible for the populist Le Pen to garner more than 50 percent of the vote in the expected second round of the election. (If no one wins more than half the vote in the first round on April 23, then the top two vote-getters face off in a May 7 runoff.)
The election results could affect far beyond France. Le Pen has called for the country to leave from the European Union. Such a step could prove fatal influence of the political bloc, which is already reeling from a U.K. vote last summer to leave the union.
Although the results suggest that Le Pen and Emanuel Macron will probably face a runoff in the second round, the strategy of Goldman Sachs notes data in the polls that raise doubts.
While the national average for voter turnout in France is 80 percent, Vedral thinks Le Pen could get 85 percent of her supporters to show up at the polls. If Macron gets only 75 percent of his voters to cast their ballots, Le Pen could be the next president of France.
Source: CNBC
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