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- Market catalysts for the next week – the Playbook for Q2
Market catalysts for the next week - the Playbook for Q2
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Loading...Major stock indices will end the quarter with modest gains. The main factors driving the markets this quarter and will continue for sure and at least some of the next are Brexit and the battle between the recession fears and the plot for a trade deal between the US and China.
The picture is already clear - speculation about progress between the US - China - the indexes up, then a new signal of an impending recession and backward movement. This consolidated model is expected to continue for the while the major catalysts are not resolved and create a more unanimous opinion among market participants.
If the progressive tone of negotiations is maintained and the fears of recession are reduced, there will be an increase in the indexes, and in the reverse scenario I expect downward movement and cash flow allocation to safe haven instruments - mainly ETFs - so it would be a good strategy not to trade style "cherry picking", but to create base-based justification and trace the whole market in any direction.
Brexit is another factor that does not give peace to traders as it forms strong moves in both directions for roller coaster pounds. For this reason, the trend strategies here do not work, but rather a more passive approach, waiting for the main themes to be expected to reach consensus (whatever it is) and to take a stance together with money flow. This turns out to be harder than ever, but for the moment to bet for a short or long against the pound, it borders on a chance game.
With regard to the economic calendar, the new week / month / quarter starts relatively quiet, and for the first half of the week, we have only one routine RBA for Australian interest rates, which is not expected to be a quote factor. Friday we have Nonfarm payrolls in the US, which will be a clear indication of the strength of the economy. The latest data from this report can not be considered extremely accurate due to the closure of the government, so the figures on Friday will show fears of overheating the economy.
Monday:
01:50 Japan - Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
03:45 China - Caixin Manufacturing PMI
11:00 Europe - CPI
14:30 USA - Retail Sales
Tuesday:
05:30 Australia - RBA Interest Rate Decision
10:30 UK - Construction PMI
Wednesday:
02:30 Australia - Retail Sales
11:30 UK - Services PMI
14:15 USA - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
16:30 USA - Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday:
13:30 Europe - ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
16:00 Canada - Ivey PMI
Friday:
14:30 USA - NFP
14:30 USA - Unemployment Rate
14:30 Canada - Employment Change
19:00 USA - Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Trader Aleksandar Kumanov Read more:
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