Theresa May agreed to provide a schedule that should describe her recent actions as UK Prime Minister. May is once again urged to "throw the dice" to pass its deal through parliament, but whatever the outcome, she said she would resign. Here are the event scenarios in the coming weeks.
The week of May 20th
If the government wants to reintroduce the UK exit agreement at the beginning of June, it will have to make an official publication in the week in question. After that, it will have to formally submit its proposal back to Parliament on a "first reading".
The week of May 27th
It will begin with the results of the European parliamentary elections that will take place on May 26th. The predictions are that the Conservatives will suffer a solid loss and Nigel Farage's Brexit party will perform well. Then follows a European Summit on May 28th. It is assumed that it will not cover Brexit, even at all, but May is invited. Parliament will be on vacation this week.
The week of June 3rd
The government is then expected to submit the May motion for a vote. No agreed date. After the vote, despite the results, May will meet Graham Brady, the chairman of the Tory Members of Parliament. They will need to draw up a timetable for elections to be held to replace May and offer substitutes for it. It is theoretically possible May May win the votes in parliament on a "second reading", but the probability is really small after the Labor announced that they are interrupting the negotiations with the government.
The week of June 10th
If the proposal is still active and passed, the government will want to act quickly to the next phase, where a special committee will review the order by order. This is most likely to happen in the House, open to all members, and will most likely be accompanied by many secondary votes and changes.
But if we suggest that the deal is completely dropped, it will be the end of the May presidency, and the nation will be taken over by the Tory group.
Mid - end of June
May remain as Prime Minister until a deputy is found. First, the Tory Group will convene a number of votes - probably two per week - to form a list of candidates.
June - August
Courier newsletters will be sent to all members of the Tory Party, who will elect the future UK Prime Minister.
August September
A new leader is elected and takes office
September 29 - October 2
Conservative Conference.
October 17-18
European Council meeting two weeks before 31 October. Then the UK must leave the EU. Expectations are, however, that another extension of Brexit may happen.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Graphs: Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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