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Medium-term view: GBP against the EUR

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The trend for the UK-economy iscontinuation of growth, with consumption growth and improvement in the labor market.All these factors suggest medium-term increase in inflation and an increase in interest rates by the BoE. It is assumed that the central bank will wait for the Fed, but recent Carney ‘s statements denied this dependence.  At present, the consensus forecasts are for February 2016. If they continue, it will be using by traders in advance.

The current situation with inflation is negative. The data show a decline in the consumer price index in September. Average earnings, including bonuses, for the three months to the end of August rose by 3.0%  against expectations for growth of 3.1% after an increase of 2.9 percent in the three months to July. Today's data of Employment are rather mixed. This snapshot suggests short-term bearish movements that may be suitable for appointment to medium-term long positions in GBP.

 

G.Hristov / Head of Fundamental Analyzes


 Varchev Traders
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