Midterm elections: Everything you need to know

Midterm Elections are starting today

These Interim Congress elections are one of the most closely watched, the most expensive and the most tense in history. They have always been more about the president than for the majority, but this time it's about the president more than ever.

Democrats are expected to take control of the House of Representatives but are lagging behind in the struggle for the Senate. By entering the final hours of the campaign and preparing the actual elections, here's how things are going:

Political experts are waiting

• Democrats take control of the House. They need 23 seats.
• Republicans to retain control of the Senate. They have to hold between 49 and 51 seats for a majority stake.
• Democrats win many in key areas of the vote. Potential are: Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan.
  Given this, the Democrats are restless
• This, for the most part, is related to the "fatalism" provided by Trump. And in 2016, they thought they would win, but lost to the man they despised.
• Statistics turn against them: in some polls last weekend there is a decrease in support for Democrats compared to October results.
• If the Democrats win, expect another bad legal framework.
• Nancy Pelosi to return as a Speaker.
• A record number of women in Congress.
• An avalanche of investigations and summons. Democrats could trigger the initial investigation that started against Russia that it had interfered in the 2016 presidential election, eliminate the Trump tax reforms and investigate some state agencies.

Markets will be OK for Democrats to take power

• The Democrats will not be able to reject the tax concessions that Trump has imposed and establish the reverse tax mechanism of the Dodd-Frank Financial Regulations.
• Markets were grateful to Trump for tax reforms, but they will also accept if the conditions are met before.
• More Trump's tweets will lead to more volatility while "firing" the Democrats.

Democrats can continue Trump's policy

• No Tax Reform 2.0
• Without resistance to Obamacare
• No more resistance to Dodd-Frank
• Slow budget upgrades for the army

Democrats may not continue Trump's policy

• The US President has a great resource to carry out its foreign policy.
  Sanctions to Iran remain.
• The trade war with China continues until Trump tries to make a deal with Xi Jinping on the G20 meeting later this month.
• Tariffs continue.
• Negotiations with North Korea continue.
• One exception: Sanctions to Russia and Saudi Arabia for the murder of journalist Jamal Kashogi.
  Robert Mueller's special council remains
• In the pre-election phase, Mueller has remained in the dark. He will be able to make further investigations after the election.
• All eyes will be turned to Chief Attorney Jeff Sessions, who is expected to resign.First Scenarios: There is no change for Mueller. Scenarios Two: Mueller gets new leadership. Scenarios Three: Trump intervenes to remove the investigation into Mueller.

The word with "I": impeachment

• Democrats are pushing their plan to incite impeachment to the president.
• Very few Democrats have actually been discussing the idea, but their number may increase if they succeed in gaining more seats.

And what if I repeat again 2016?

• Two years ago, the polls were mistaken for Hillary Clinton.
• If Republicans hold control over both Houses, Trump will rob all the laurels. He has made 11 Campaigns in eight states over the past six days.
• Trump invincible: He will still control the House and Congress, but it will be clear that his "outside the box" approach will be successful.
• Democrats will despair in their quest to stop Trump.
• Trump may also lead the government to stop to get the money for its Wall with Mexico.
  Whatever happens, 2020 is approaching

If the Democrats take the House and have enough seats, it means they have had a victory in the States where Trump won in 2016. A "civil war" between the Liberals and the Moderate will continue in the hope that they will be able to bring down Trump in 2020 .
If the Democrats lose the House, it will mean that Trump will remain in better shape for a new election.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Photo: Uniplash

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