Europe is expected to start at slightly higher levels than yesterday. But let the indicative prices do not mislead you. Trade talks are on the brink of failure that has plunged the US, and consequently the Asian indices. Donald Trump's and Lighthizer's comments that Friday may impose 25% tariffs were not accepted by the markets. Again, the worry that we would have a deal came back, almost bordering on fear and panic. The yen and gold rose against the backdrop.
We are expecting this sentiment to hold even today until a positive catalyst appears. Markets will be fully focused on trade talks, so as little data as we have on the economic calendar today will not have such a big effect. But before that, European traders will have to listen to Mario Draghi and what he will have to say about monetary policy.
At the Brexit front, we expect a continuation of the yahoo yesterday. Negotiations with the Labor for Customs Reforms to bring them into the form of a customs union for the common deal failed. We expect the pounds to remain under pressure until a positive turnaround occurs.
With regard to raw materials, we expect gold to remain on demand against a backdrop of stock depreciation, and industrial metals will suffer a downward trend today, given the background to negotiations and again weaker data from China, this time on trade balance. Around the oil, we also expect the bears to be surrounded by fluctuations in Russia and OPEC + to adhere to production quotas and eventual re-saturation in the market.
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