Cash flow today is expected to follow its pace yesterday, namely, the escape of risky assets, including gold and yen. Yesterday, after the Fed's interest rate decision, which was already valued and disappointed by Powell, investors fled to the Swiss franc. Only there they found refuge against the backdrop of falling bonds, stocks, gold and the Japanese yen. The US dollar was the most profitable asset yesterday, contrary to the relationship between interest rates and the value of the national currency.
In Europe, the major indices indicate a cautious start, with the beginning of a recovery attempt. Despite the shock of yesterday, which has not yet been completely overcome, the markets are distrustful of the Fed, which undermines the prospect of continuing the rally at this stage. What temporarily looks like an attempt to sip air can very quickly become a suffocating grip.
Given the behavior of "smart money", we expect a temporary risk today with a recovery in gold, the yen, stocks and oil and a fall in the dollar. Later today, in addition to the reports of several other US companies, we will also have a decision on the UK interest rate and the statement by BoE President Carney. The pound today will also be involved in the contribution of large movements. The new day is also the beginning of a new month, so expect more weird behavior on the markets given the market entry for the new month.
Remember, most bankers, traders, investors, and hedge fund managers are already in the summer, entering the typical seasonality for this period of low liquidity and volatility. As a mere coincidence, yesterday's FOMC was also the last day of July, which significantly contributed to the volatile effect among the markets.
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