Optimism, but not extreme, has caught the eye of the markets that have been staring at trade negotiations. The markets calmed down with yesterday and last night recording increases against the backdrop of the first day of negotiations. The two delegations also welcomed the meeting, and Trump made a positive comment. Today he will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Liu He.
Today, we expect cash flows to hold on to risky assets, on the grounds that the two sides would reach a small-scale temporary deal, "packaged" by a currency pact. It is the risk on mood that will make investors look for cyclical stocks, as we expect indexes, bond yields and oil to continue their appreciation today. Today, we expect the ebb of gold, the Swiss franc and the US dollar as defensive instruments.
Despite the main event for today, there are some fundamental events on the calendar that the market would pay attention to. Including several statements from the Fed, an OPEC meeting and data on the Canadian economy. We mention this because oil today will not only be affected by the outcome of trade negotiations. Following good rhetoric from OPEC's secretary general yesterday, oil has recorded an increase, and we will expect to comment today on maintaining low production quotas to further balance the market against the backdrop of a stagnating global economy.
On the Old Continent, Brexit remains the driving factor, with futures on European exchanges raised by optimism over negotiations with Northern Ireland. The positive rhetoric yesterday between Johnson and Varadkar that he could have an agreement by the end of the month has definitely had a huge positive effect on the pound.
Anyway...
If we are taught something about politics, it is that we can never know what lies behind the "statesman's mask". More than once, markets have experienced last-minute turnovers.
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