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Morgan Stanley revises its forecast for the yen and the Swiss franc

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The bank expects the Swiss franc and the yen to continue appreciating against the backdrop of weakening emerging markets and commodity currencies. The arguments are:

  • The dollar index still finds support
  • An additional escalation of the trade war
  • Continued deterioration in the outlook for the global economy
  • The Fed is likely to become even more dovish
  • The rising risk of a global recession
  • MS Expectations:

Q4
USD / JPY 101 (from previous 102)
Q1 2020
USD / JPY 100 (at 100 previous forecasts)

Q4
EUR / USD 1.15 (from previous 1.16)
Q1 2020
EUR / USD 1.17 (previous 1.18)

Q4
EUR / CHF 1.08 (previous 1.17)
Q1 2020
EUR / CHF 1.10 (previous 1.18)


 Trader Martin Nikolov

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