In the short term, MUFG remains with a bearish mood against the euro, believing that the price was on the 1.1050 zone. The euro is testing the bottom of the range now at levels between 1.1100 and 1.1400. The strong signal from the ECB that it is planning a policy lightening package in September should continue to weaken the euro. Market participants also begin to assess the likelihood of renewing QE.
The likelihood remains that this week the euro will remain under pressure as the Fed summits and the interest rate move. Especially if the interest rate cut is 50 or more bps. But markets are preparing and valued cut by 25 points. The dollar is currently supported by several factors: raising the US debt ceiling, resuming talks between the US and China, better data for the US. This suggests that "green money" remains more attractive to investors.
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