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New opportunities for profit on yen ?

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Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's promise of a hefty fiscal stimulus package has effectively forced the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to come up with matching monetary ammunition at the close of its two-day meeting on Friday.

A report by news agency Jiji that Abe had revealed a 28 trillion yen ($265 billion) injection, which Reuters estimates at 6 percent of Japan's economy, surprised markets as many anticipated Tokyo would announce a fiscal package only sometime next week. The earlier-than-expected news now put the onus on BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to ensure coordinated fiscal-monetary expansion

On Tuesday, Finance Minister Taro Aso said he hoped the central bank would "do its utmost" to push inflation up to Tokyo's 2 percent goal—comments that were interpreted as a push for more easing.

Another factor that could sway the BOJ's hand on Friday is the depth of the fiscal package itself.
It's not yet clear how much of the fresh stimulus will be allocated to the full-year 2016 supplementary budget so fiscal support alone wouldn't re-inflate the economy, Chris Weston, IG's chief market strategist

"The fiscal measures can take time to work through the system and will do little to boost immediate inflation expectations and in theory if the Abe government are going big, then so should the BOJ," Weston said.
Those sentiments were echoed by Laura Fitzsimmons, vice president of rates and FX sales at JPMorgan.
"I expect to see the BOJ announce a shotgun approach. That would include a widening of the range of assets the BOJ buys to include Zaito and FILP bonds [types of Japanese government debt], a possible doubling of equity-traded funds (ETF) purchases and an increase in loans with the possibility of negative loan rates," said Westpac's Rennie.

Therefore new opportunities for trade are available - short on yen. Possible long at USD/JPY, EUR/JPY


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