NFP and FED on focus next week, what to expect 30.04 - 04.05.2018

An interesting week coming, that investors will focus on central banks and the US labor market. On Wednesday, we expect the FED interest rate decision and on Friday, Non Farm Payrolls. But what we should pay particular attention is the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates decision on Tuesday. The probability of the bank to raise rates is 0.00%, which means, we do not expect serious movements with the Australian. This time, this may not be the case! Tuesday is a day off, both for the big Asian markets and for those in Europe. This means that during the Asian session, when we expect the RBA's decision, the market will be very "thiny" and the likelihood of manipulation jumps drastically. Be cautious with the Australian after the RBA's decision on interest rates on Tuesday - 07:30 GMT+2. A day later, on Wednesday, we expect ADP data for new US jobs. The consensus estimate is again 200,000. If the actual data is close to the forecast (150/250K), I do not expect a major impact on the USD, because investors will focus on the Fed's key interest rate decision and especially the FOMC report for monetary policy - 21:00 GMT+2. The probability of raising interest rates is 5.5% or, in other words, there will be no increase. The important thing will be the FOMC report from which investors will get a sense of mood among Fed members. If we notice even a small probability that the planned interest rate increases will not occur, the volatility of the dollar will be a deadly one, and the downside will be huge. Dollar bulls are yet to wake up, and a similar twist in mood among Fed members will act heavily. If FOMC confirms its position, the USD will receive the next support, and any greenback retracement can be used to add to the long positions. Friday - Non Farm Payrolls and the United States again under the light. The consensus forecast is for 195,000 new jobs and a fall in unemployment to 4.0%. Decline in unemployment and growth in new jobs will support the USD in the decisive reversal that the currency has been marking over the past two weeks.

The economic events that will move the markets next week 30.04 - 04.05.2018

Monday
Holiday Day in Japan and China - Labor Day
04:00 China - Manufacturing PMI
04:00 New Zealand - ANZ Business Confidence
09:00 Germany - Retail sales
10:00 Switzerland - KOF Leading indicator
15:00 Germany - CPI
17:00 USA - Selling Existing Homes

Tuesday
Holiday Day in China, Russia and Europe - Labor Day
01:30 Australia - AIG Production index
01:45 New Zealand - Building permits
07:30 Australia - RBA Basic Interest Rate
07:30 Australia - RBA Monetary Policy Report
11:30 UK - Manufacturing PMI
15:30 Canada - GDP
16:45 Production PMI
21:30 Canada - Speech by Stephen Poloz, Bank Of Canada Governor
23:30 US - API Crude Oil Inventories

Wednesday
01:45 New Zealand - New Jobs
01:45 New Zealand - Unemployment rate
04:45 China - Caixin Manufacturing PMI
08:45 Switzerland - Consumer Climate
10:15 Switzerland - Retail Sales
10:55 Germany - Production PMI
11:00 Eurozone - Production PMI
15:15 USA - ADP Non Farm Payrolls
17:30 US - Crude Oil Inventories
21:00 US - FED Interest Rate decision
21:00 United States - FOMC Monetary Policy Report

Thursday
Holiday Day in Japan - Constitution day
04:30 Australia - Building permits
04:30 Australia - Trade Balance
11:30 UK - Services PMI
12:00 Eurozone - CPI
15:00 Eurozone - Speech by Vítor Constâncio, ECB Member
15:30 US - Trade Balance
19:00 Switzerland - Speech by Thomas Jordan, Governor of the Swiss National Bank

Friday
Holiday Day in Japan - Greenery Day
04:30 Australia - RBA Report on Monetary Policy
04:45 China - PMI in Services
11:00 Eurozone - PMI in the field of services
12:00 Eurozone - Retail Sales
15:30 USA - Non Farm Payrolls
15:30 USA - Unemployment rate
20:00 USA - Baker Hughes Oil rig count

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