No OPEC deal expected, though it would have had impact

OPEC producers could have a significant impact on oil prices if they agree to a production freeze, but it's unlikely they'll get it done at this week's meeting in Algiers.

Sixty-five percent of the survey respondents said no agreement is likely, while 52 percent said if producers could strike a deal, there would be a meaningful effect on crude prices. That may be because little more than half of the participants also said they believe the rebalancing of oil supply and demand is occurring more slowly than they had expected.

About 90 percent of the survey respondents believe West Texas Intermediate oil prices will be above $40 per barrel at the end of the year, with nearly 40 percent expecting them between $50 and $59 per barrel.

"Crude oil is comfortable between $40 and $52 per barrel, but that range would be extraordinarily uncomfortable should there be any hint of U.S. recession," said Tom Kloza, head of global energy research at the Oil Price Information Service.

"Inventory is the key variable to watch in terms of the actual supply/demand balance. U.S. inventory is the most accurate and most available and will continue to be a significant influencer of prices in the absence of OPEC noise/action. Inventories are tightening," according to Dan Pickering, co-president of Tudor Pickering.

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