Oil - high volatility and lowest probability of price growth.

Supply for a long time will exceeds demand, which in practice does not grow for some time. European consumption dropped. Hopes against the Chinese potential decreased by slowing economic growth. In India, consumption is rising more slowly than expected. The world economy is slowing down and the oil market now became almost entirely dependent on the demand curve.

Trade is in a powerful corridor with a median price of $ 45 per barrel (Brent). The market was unusually nervous and will remain highly variable forlong time. It is possible they were sweeping the level to $ 20 under the influence of temporary factors or unexpected geopolitical stress. At this corridor have been converted major exporters. The emergence of medium-term upward trend in these conditions is very unlikely. It is important to bear in mind that the profits of producersbased in countries with progressive tax system aren’t be proportionately affected by the large decline in the price. Rather negatives will feel state budgets rely on revenue from taxes on oil and its derivatives, which is especially characteristic of some newly industrialized countries and developing countries.

OPEC is no longer as powerful tool of price manipulation, as it was years ago. Four leading Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and Qatar very well realized that the reduction in yield will only release powerful niche for American exporters. The dynamics of the energy markets has changed significantly through shelf production. Available production capacity globally require adaptation of the quartet to new conditions. That adjustment is the reason there are no hints to reduce production. Fear of losing market share leading prices seem secondary measure. Current low prices are forcing manufacturers to shrink less profitable projects, but this is a short-term reaction with variable effect.

Slower global growth increasing political pressure in some countries, while the US is still trying to change the conditions of the oil market by traditional market forces of supply and demand. Obviously, a significant reimbursement requires stronger economies, combined with the growth and consensus expectations for financial stability. The simultaneous implementation of these conditions in the medium term seems rather unlikely.