One hour to FED interest rate decision, here is what to know

Just 60 minutes to the Fed's decision on the basic interest rate, the markets are still confused and divided into two. Some investors are of the opinion that the Fed will comply with the rising trade war, and the rest are of the opinion that it will not deter members from voting to raise interest rates. If the Federal Reserve sounds more optimistic about the economy, raises the interest rate forecast or even announces that Powell will hold press conferences after each meeting, then we can undoubtedly think that the Fed has no intention of seeing the war as a potential risk => strong dollar growth still tonight.

What else ?

1. Dot Plot depicting moods among Fed members

Currently, the chart shows three interest increases this year, but if we see an increase in FOMC members to support the 4th promotion, we will certainly see strong support for the dollar.

2. The US economy

The Fed is likely to increase its GDP forecast to 2% to 3.0% in 2018. On the level of unemployment, the Fed may leave its forecast as it is, 3.8%. The Fed may slightly change its forecast for inflation, which is currently suffering a slight blow. The current Fed forecast expects base inflation to be 1.9% this year and while the CPI is below 2%.

3. The trade war

At the press conference, Powell will be asked about the economic impact of commercial tariffs. As I said before, the market is divided into two, and this issue will be key to what the Fed thinks about the trade situation that has been so. It is this answer that will bring the highest volatility to USD this evening

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