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OPEC, Russia have showdown over US shale drilling ahead of meeting
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Loading...OPEC's meeting next week could be a volatile one for the energy market, as the cartel seeks to extend its agreement to limit oil production against rising U.S. output.
OPEC is expected to extend its deal with Russia and other oil producers to keep 1.8 million barrels a day off the market, but what's not clear is for how long. Analysts say the market is positioning for a nine-month extension from the deal's current expiration in March.
So far the agreement has been seen as a factor in stabilizing the oil market, and it has helped boost prices to a two-year high. But heading into the Nov. 30 meeting, Russia's oil companies have been complaining loudly because higher crude prices have helped the U.S. shale industry ramp up production and nibble away at global market share.
Analysts expect the U.S. to add about another million barrels per day of production next year. In the past week, the U.S. produced 9.7 million barrels a day, 1 million barrels more than last year. The U.S. exported 1.5 million barrels a day.
"The Russian corporates are being so public about being unhappy about the agreement, and the markets are getting a little jittery," said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC. "The problem now is with the expectation that it's for the full year ... if you get anything less, it would be a negative event."
"The risks are weighted to the downside from this meeting," she said.
The meeting puts the spotlight on the changing landscape of global energy production and politics. The U.S., the third-largest crude producer behind Russia and Saudi Arabia, has increasingly influenced the market, but unlike those two countries, the U.S. industry is made up of a collection of hundreds of independent oil-producing companies, both large and small.
The U.S. shale industry is also a big deal in Moscow, said Chris Weafer, senior partner at Macro-Advisory.
"U.S. oil production is the elephant in the room because it's starting to surge again, and everyone is aware the cost of U.S. production is going lower and bringing more marginal barrels on to the market," Weafer said. "It's definitely in the background, particularly the [Russian] companies. They're looking very much at U.S. production because they're commercial companies and unlike the OPEC models, they have to produce results and pay dividends."
Weafer said his sources in Russia's oil industry tell him the government is working out a compromise with the industry, which may revolve around the industry escaping a new tax if it agrees to go along with production curbs for longer.
Weafer said if U.S. production continues to rise, Russian companies will bristle at the deal. Russian companies could add 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day over the next several months. "We're at the latter part of this deal for sure," Weafer said. "Nobody wants to do favors for U.S. producers," he said.
Russia's companies could come to some sort of agreement in the next couple of days, and Russia will likely announce its support of the extension just ahead of the OPEC meeting, Weafer said. The production deal was first agreed to a year ago and went into effect in January.
Saudi Arabia and Russia have been the drivers of the production agreement, and neither would like to see prices so high as to draw in more shale producers or too low, which would hurt their own budgets. Brent futures were trading at just under $63 per barrel Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate futures rose above $58 per barrel Wednesday for the first time since July 2015.
Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal
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