OPEC + will have a new meeting on May 18th

Main subject of conversation: Iran.

The big question that arises on the agenda is whether after the sanctions of the US will have to Russia and Saudi Arabia to boost production. They speculate that they will have to take these steps to fill the gap left by Iran to meet the production quota. This will be the main topic of the OPEC + meeting on May 18 in Jeddah.

However, the geopolitical situation may complicate things at the moment. Any change in the current yield conditions will have to be taken into account in order to avoid further escalation and the already strained relations.

Iran remains the main problem of "three fronts". First, the United States will expect Saudi Arabia to cover the shortage of Iranian oil. This will increase the pressure on OPEC + members to agree to the next major meeting in June.

Second, it is still unclear what amount of Iranian oil will be removed from the market due to US sanctions. China seems to be keen to trade oil with Iran, so it is quite difficult to assess the upcoming shortage. It will be difficult for members of OPEC + to agree to cover any quantity.

Third, any decision to "replace" Iranian oil will be met with strong resistance from Iran. Surely Tehran will not agree to lose market share, especially at such a critical time. This will further shadow the unity of OPEC + for the next meeting.

We expect the meeting to be "turbulent", with a high volatility in the oil markets. OPEC + is going on a difficult path to clarify what their oil policy will be by the end of the year.

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