Playbook of the trader for the week ahead 10.06 - 14.06.2019

We end the week with relief. The last day of trading definitely delighted traders and investors who managed to get some relief. Bad news are good news on Wall Street, as seen with labor market data. Bad data is marketed as a positive thing because it shows that the US economy is beginning to give signs of slowing. And this delay may cause the Fed to reduce interest rates that is welcome from Wall Street. Europe also ended the day and week in green territory. Commercial tensions have also been mitigated, but with China. Mexico, however, is about to escalate, with tariffs expected Monday. May officially stepped out of office as Conservative leader, but will still remain Prime Minister until the election of her deputy. But it comes with so many recollections of past things. What to expect next week? What will the markets do?

The week will start beating, as the Asian session will be rich in data. Starting from Japan's GDP to the trade balance of China. For the European and US trading session, there will also be enough economic data. GDP and industrial production in the UK and trade balance. For Canada - starting new homes and later for the US - JOLTS new jobs.

Tuesday will be a bit lighter as during the Asian trading session we only have business confidence from Australia. Again Britain will be in focus in the morning with data on hourly wages and the number of unemployed, as well as the change in employment. Unemployment will be the key indicator, of course, for the labor market. In the middle of the European session and shortly before the US, we expect the US PPI.

On Wednesday, the API data for oil reserves will start with the start of Asia, and again WESTPAC Australia's consumer confidence for Australia will move the Australian dollar. Later we have CPI and PPI for China. A little before 12 pm the European indices and the euro will expect Mario Draghi's statement, which will confirm the previous one. Before opening the US, we will see the oil inventory and CPI data.

Thursday, in the middle of the Asian session, the "Australian" will be in focus, looking for labor market data - unemployment and change in employment. Just before the start of Europe, we will see the German CPI data, and then we expect industrial production for the Eurozone. At 15:30, the original US aid applications will be released.

Friday - China's industrial production and unemployment rate will be the expected data during the Asian session, which, depending on their current data, will also affect Europe and the United States. We are also expecting the meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers the same day. For the US, we expect retail and industrial production as well as Michigan consumer confidence. We finish with Baker Hughes a number of oil platforms.

No doubt, it will be a busy week. Against this backdrop, however, the main topics will continue to shake or balance the markets - Brexit, a trade war, OPEC reappears on the radar with their upcoming meeting in Vienna.

The sentiment will again depend on the evolution of these events. However, with the current slump in sentiment, we expect global stock markets to continue rising and deflationary assets back, including the US dollar. Gold is approaching a serious resistance around 1347, which may be a stumbling block to the current rally. Oil seems to take up the comments from Russia and OPEC to maintain the quota. WTI can attack levels around 55 - 56 if we see a slight improvement in the sentiment. This, of course, is not the ultimate conclusion that the trend turns.

At FX markets, we expect EUR / USD to climb about 200 - the average or about 1.13382. With USD / JPY, 108 remains a key psychological support, and we expect a breakthrough if the dollar continues to weaken.

Photo: Flickr

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