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Positive earnings sentiment at the end of 2016 looks to continue in this year

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Positive earnings momentum at the end of 2016 looks to continue in the new year. Bottom-up consensus implies 9.1% YoY EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 1Q, following 6.4% YoY growth in 4Q. Easy comps from the energy sector are boosting the magnitude of recovery, but ex-energy growth is still expected to be up 5.5% from the same period a year ago, a bit slower than 7.0% growth recorded in 4Q 16. Before the 2015-16 profit recession, EPS growth averaged 8.9% YoY this cycle.

Sector divergences in EPS are expected to be vast in 1Q. Energy growth is not meaningful, considering the comparison to a year ago. Financials and technology are poised to record double-digit earnings growth, while industrials, discretionary, telecom and utilities are expected to post declines.

source: Bloomberg


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