Sean Callow of Westpac, expects Fed to hike rates in September, and add that the rise in funds rate will be very gradual from its current 0-0.25% range.
Indeed it has been another poor week for the US economy. Mar retail sales showed only a modest rise after very weak readings from Dec to Feb. Small business optimism fell, the NY Fed’s manufacturing survey hit a low since Dec 2014 and industrial production fell more than expected. Only a small improvement in homebuilder sentiment provided a glimmer of hope.
US 10 year yields are broadly range-bound, finding buyers fleeing the Eurozone’s ultra-low yields but the 2 year T-note is again testing under 0.50%. This implies the Fed raises the funds rate only very gradually from its current 0-0.25% range.
We still expect a Sep rate hike but the near term talk is likely to be about how long rates stay near zero.
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