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Potential strategies in exotic European currencies

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Tensions from populism in central Europe (especially Hungary and Poland) will be in the focus of Europe in the near future: especially after the sanctions imposed on Hungary. Mario Draghi's statement yesterday confirmed the expectations for cautious disruption of QE in Europe. This makes long positions of USD crosses with the currencies of small European economies attractive.

USD / HUF

Weekly chart

We see a break out and retest of the downward channel. Divergence points to a reversal in the trend, as well as the double bottom around 38.2% Fibonacci. The price is currently at the bottom of the flag (ranging from 273 to 286). Long positions are supported by Fibonacci 23.6% (270.45).

Entry: Long position at 277.

S / L: 269

USD / PLN

Weekly chart

Entry: Long at 3.678

S / L: 3.647

USD / SEK

Daily chart

Divergence of RSI since May shows a lack of conviction in the upward movement. An attempt to break out above the previous peak failed. The price falls below the 50-day MA. We expect a continuation of the overall downward trend.

Entry: Short around 8.82; this level is just below 61.8% Fibonacci resistance (about 8.8242).

S / L: 8.87.


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