According to a survey of fund managers, the risk of a global recession is highest since August 2009, as the slowdown in growth, trade and political uncertainty reflects investor sentiment.
About 38% of investors who participated in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch poll for September, released today, expect a recession next year. This figure was 34% in the August survey, the highest response since October 2011.
Investors surveyed between September 6 and 12 have not yet shown a change in "value" assets, remaining with heavy exposures to investments that outperform amid low growth and low rates. Only 7% of respondents expect share values to outpace growth over the next 12 months.
A study of 235 participants with $ 683 billion combined assets revealed that investors see Germany's fiscal stimulus as having the highest potential for risky assets over the next six months, followed by a 50 basis point reduction in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve and infrastructure spending in China.
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