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Relief rally is here. Enjoy it while it lasts.

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For the first time this year, the bulls are showing their horns.

The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed their first positive week in the last three, renewing confidence in the otherwise gloomy market environment. According to one technician, a bottom could be in place for the very near-term—at least for the time being.

"The first thing we see [on the charts] are the textbook signs of short-term trend exhaustion," Rich Ross, head of technical analysis for Evercore ISI, told CNBC's "Trading Nation" this week. The S&P 500 saw its best trading session in more than a month on Friday.

Looking at a chart of the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ETF), the SPY, Ross pointed what he calls a three-day pattern of "exhaustion, stabilization and follow through" that formed on the chart in recent days. He pointed to the low seen mid-week as the exhaustion phase, the rally on Thursday as the market trying to find footing, and the continued strength during Friday's session as a confirmation in trend. "I think that sets the stage for some short-term relief that could take us higher," he said.

SPY-25janFor Ross, the S&P 500 rally another 5 percent over in the next several sessions, with the SPY going as high as $200 before resuming its downtrend. On Friday, the fund traded around $190.

Outlook still negative

Ross, who correctly called for a break below 1,900 in the S&P 500 a few weeks ago, ultimately believes that the market will retest its Wednesday low of roughly 1,812, which translates into $181 on the SPY.Looking at a longer-term picture, Ross noted that there could still be significant downside ahead.

"It looks to me like we're forming the neckline of a big head and shoulders top," said the analyst. "A break below that neckline gives us a confirmed breakdown that sets us up for a deeper pullback," he said.

For now, added Ross, enjoy the bounce while it lasts.

(source: CNBC)


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