Risk calendar: September 2018

This September is overwhelmed by events around the riskiest and most crucial events in the global economy. These events are key for both currency traders and stock traders.

This week we are expecting the US administration's decisions on tariffs on $ 200 billion of imports, as well as a decision on the introduction of duties on European cars. This is key since the beginning of the year has seen something unprecedented in the markets: the correlation between European stocks and the stocks of developing countries is higher than the correlation between European stocks and US stocks.

Risk calendar for the month:

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday: Agreement between the US and Canada for the renewal of NAFTA;  decision by the US administration to impose duties on $ 200 billion imports from China; decision to place duties on Canadian auto-parts by the US Administration;

9 September: Elections in Sweden; the Social-Democrats, an anti-immigrant party, are expected to be among the leading parties.

September 13: Meeting of the ECB

September 19: Meeting of the Bank of Japan

September 26: Federal Reserve meeting

September 27: The Italian government will publish an initial version of its budget for 2019; why this is the key event for the euro?

September 30: Production PMI in China; we will monitor this indicator for signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and for signs of a negative effect from US tariffs.

The meetings of three of the four largest central banks (the other is the BOE) come amid growing uncertainty in the markets for the future policy of the Chinese, Hong Kong and European Central Banks. Compared with the stable expectations for US monetary policy, the mood in China and Europe (as the graph on the left shows) shows markets have been very uncertain over the past year.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Charts: Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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