Risks and uncertainty in the first week of the new quarter

We waited for a very exciting week.The economic factors that will shape market sentiment are the escalating tension between the US and China, the official data on new jobs in the United States.

In this week, traders' attention will also be focused on Britain's key economic indicators: Manufacturing PMI, PMI in Construction, PMI in Services and Residential Price Index.

We must not forget the decision of the Reserve Bank Of Australia. The bank will announce its decision on Tuesday at 7:30 am and will immediately publish the report on the central bank's monetary policy.

We have compiled a list of the top five economic calendar events most likely to move the markets:

1. The US-China Trade War.

Relations between the two countries are becoming more and more strained. It is expected Friday that US tariffs for Chinese goods will come into force. That same Friday, Beijing plans to respond the same way: with tariffs on American goods.

2. US Jobs Report.

ADP's preliminary data on new jobs in the US will be published on Thursday. Forecasts are upward from previous data to 190,000 from 178,000. However, official figures are expected to be lower than the previous one, from 200,000 to 223,000 in May. As we know, better data than forecasted will lead to a USD growth, a worse, to a downside.

Taking into account the much worse GDP data that was posted last week, we can expect any bad data for the NFP, which will have a detrimental effect on the USD.

3.FOMC meetings minutes.

The Federal Reserve will publish minutes of its last meeting on Thursday at 14:00.
The US central bank raised interest rates, as expected after its June 13 meeting - the second increase in interest rates for the year. Interest rates will continue to rise, Fed plans two additional interest increases by the end of the year.

4.Industrial production of Germany.

Industrial production data will be released on Friday, an increase of 0.4% is expected, although economic performance has fallen for four consecutive months. This will be positive for the Eurozone, as I expect the EUR / USD to be pushed away from the key levels the bulls held late last week.

5.PMI services in the United Kingdom.

Sector data are expected to decrease to 53.9 against the previous one by 54.0. General data show: growth in the economy for the first quarter and renewed expectations of investors to raise interest rates this year.

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