September brings spring, but for the S&P 500 September brings sinister seasonal statistics. Over the period 1964-2016 September has been the month with the worst average return (average -0.4% m/m) and the lowest probability of a positive return (returns were positive for the month 'only' 45% of the time). With a long list of potential concerns e.g. North Korea, government shutdown, super storms, high valuations, low cash holdings, low implied correlations, euphoric sentiment readings, and monetary policy normalization... it's quite straightforward to make a case for a bearish or cautious bias short-term.
Looking across the 1964-2016 period, September has seen the worst average monthly price performance.
Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal
Trader I. Ivanov
Read more:
25 Canada Square, Level 33, office 50, Canary Wharf London, E14 5LQ +44 20 3608 6256
World Financial Markets - 0700 17 600 Varchev Exchange - 0700 115 44
Varchev Finance Ltd is registered in the FCA (FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY) with a passport in the United Kingdom: FCA, United Kingdom - registration number: 494 045, which allows provision of financial services in the United Kingdom.
Varchev Finance Ltd strictly comply with the statutes of the European directive MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments). targeting increased efficiency, transparency and uniformity of financial instruments.
Varchev Finance Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Supervision Commission - Sofia, Bulgaria: License number RG-03-02-05 / 15.03.2006
The information on this site is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
Disclaimer:
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.