Seth A. Klarman's opinion on "Trump markt"

He is the most successful and influential investor you have probably never heard of. His writings are so coveted and followed by Wall Street that a used copy of a book he wrote several decades ago about investing starts at $795 , and a new copy sells for as much as $3,500.

Perhaps that's why a private letter he wrote to his investors a little over two weeks ago about investing during the age of President Trump — and offering his thoughts on the current state of the hedge fund industry — has quietly become the most sought-after reading material on Wall Street.

He is Seth A. Klarman, the 59-year-old value investor who runs Baupost Group, which manages some $30 billion.

While Mr. Klarman has long kept a low public profile, he is considered a giant within investment circles. He is often compared to Warren Buffet, and The Economist magazine once described him as "The Oracle of Boston," where Baupost is based. For good measure, he is one of the very few hedge managers Mr. Buffett has publicly praised.

In his letter, Mr. Klarman sets forth a countervailing view to the euphoria that has buoyed the stock market since Mr. Trump took office, describing "perilously high valuations."

"Exuberant investors have focused on the potential benefits of stimulative tax cuts, while mostly ignoring the risks from America-first protectionism and the erection of new trade barriers," he wrote.

In particular, Mr. Klarman appears to believe that investors have become hypnotized by all the talk of pro-growth policies, without considering the full ramifications. He worries, for example, that Mr. Trump's stimulus efforts "could prove quite inflationary, which would likely shock investors."

And he appears deeply concerned about a swelling national debt that he suggests could undermine the economy's growth over the long term.

"The big picture for investors is this: Trump is high volatility, and investors generally abhor volatility and shun uncertainty," he wrote. "Not only is Trump shockingly unpredictable, he's apparently deliberately so; he says it's part of his plan."

While Mr. Klarman clearly is hoping for the best, he warned, "If things go wrong, we could find ourselves at the beginning of a lengthy decline in dollar hegemony, a rapid rise in interest rates and inflation, and global angst."

Mr. Klarman is a registered independent and has given money to politicians from both parties. He has donated to Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, John McCain and Rudolph W. Giuliani as well as Hillary Clinton, Cory Booker and Mark Warner.

From the letter, it is hard to divine exactly how Mr. Klarman is investing his fund's money. His office declined to comment on the letter, which I obtained from a source. His fund currently has more than 30 percent of its funds in cash. He has lost money in only three of the past 34 years.

What investors say publicly and what they do in the markets can be different things. Mr. Buffett campaigned publicly against Mr. Trump, but he has nevertheless invested in the market since his election — about $12 billion, according to a recent disclosure. George Soros, who also actively campaigned against Mr. Trump, bet — wrongly so far — that the stock market would fall; he lost about $1 billion.

Most hedge funds have found themselves on the losing side of trades over the past several years, a point Mr. Klarman addressed in his letter.

The lousy performance among hedge funds and the potential for them to go out of business or consolidate, he suggests, may become an opportunity.