Should we expect a new political chaos after Brexit's vote today?

The vote on Theresa May's proposal for the Brexit deal is forthcoming, leaving less than 75 days until the UK has to officially leave the European Union. Surprisingly, however, the expectation is that it is bound to lose.

This creates the premise for a complete disintegration of the government, a chaotic exit from the Block, and the whole Brexit process being re-examined.

May's proposal is divided into two parts: a "withdrawal agreement", which includes the terms "divorce" and "future relations" itself - a document that sets out in a draft what the relationship between the EU and the UK will be.

Westminster must now either accept the government's proposal in its entire structure of the exit plan with a relatively close economic relationship with the Union, or reject the proposal and cause tremendous political uncertainty.

What are the chances of success for May?

The opposition seems rather threatening, but Britain's Prime Minister is hopeful that she will be able to win more supporters on her side. For the time being, however, there are very few signs that Brussels will provide the May support needed, especially on the Irish border issue. But if the deal passes, Britain and the EU will enter a transit period starting March 29. However, negotiations between the UK and the EU will still continue negotiations to clarify future relations between them.

What will be the consequences after the vote?

The government will only have three days to find an alternative if it loses today on the May vote.

The inscription sufficiently illustrates the consequences of the two options: In victory, things go on a normal exit plan from the EU on March 29th. But at a loss, things get a little more complicated, because the government needs to figure its next move for a short time.

How are the financial markets expected to react?

The probable scenarios are as follows: Extension of point 50, renegotiation, no deal, new vote of no confidence, main election or second Brexit referendum. A combination of one or two solutions is also possible.

According to Nomura strategists: "High levels of risk imply the possibility of realizing each of these scenarios."

The British currency is down by more than 10% against the US dollar after it peaked in April 2018 from 1.4335, mainly because of the fears of the success of the Brexit campaign. "We expect coordinated action by central banks around the world to respond to a possible financial market failure after the Brexit hard-hitting scrutiny." - share the Nomura strategists.

Source: CNBC 

Photo: Pixabay

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