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Six reasons to remain optimistic in 2020
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Loading...The month of pessimistic forecasts enters its festive phase and its days are numbered. We will not mention here the risks for 2020, but the reasons why we remain optimistic for next year. There are enough "candidates" to take risks from Iran to North Korea and the 2020 US presidential election.
As Winston Churchill put it: "The pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, the optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." With that in mind, here are six options we see for next year.
Global growth is accelerating, the time of prosperity is not stopping
We've never been so good ...
Global well-being is at its highest in history, or at least the Legatum Prosperity Index shows. Over the past decade, prosperity has improved in 148 countries and has dropped in 19 of the 167 Legatum nations surveyed, which make up more than 99% of the planet's population.
Improvements range from health and education, higher financial security and a major improvement in the logistics chains for the most basic goods and services.
According to the World Bank, more than 1 billion people have escaped poverty since 1990, leaving the proportion of the poor within 10%. Although still a worrying level, it is the lowest in history.
Some of the worst places in the world are improving
The Economist chooses "State of the Year" every December. Initial indications indicate that they will select Uzbekistan for this year's ranking as the most developed country. Everything is headed in a positive direction after the death of the Islam Karimov despot in 2016.
Until his death, the regime was a "closed society governed in a brutal and incompetent manner."
Post-regime reforms end child labor and exploitation, the country's heaviest prison closes, the curtain falls on foreign journalists, and bureaucrats are cleared to no longer harass small businesses.
The other candidate country for The Economist was Sudan. Another country has taken the Uzbekistan route. The removal of the tyrant, Omar al-Bashir, ushers in a new era of prosperity for the small Arab country.
The world middle class has never been this big and half of humanity lives in a democratic society
Although there is increasing concern about rising inequality among countries - both developed and developing - less attention has been paid to the positive trend. In fact, global inequality has been declining for several decades. For the first time since the Industrial Revolution, half the world's population can be considered middle class.
In addition, half the population lives in a democratic society. Those who still reside in countries with regimes - 90% of them are in China - remain hopeful that authoritarian beginnings in China will inspire other countries to move to an open democratic society.
And in contrast to the regimes, we are witnessing protests in Hong Kong and the upcoming Taiwan elections. Protests in the Middle East - in Iran, Iraq and Lisbon are also aimed at overthrowing despotic governments.
Violent conflict has subsided
Now with the UK leaving the EU next year, the pessimists are showing again. What they forget, however, is that there have been no conflicts in Western Europe for three generations. The creation of the European Union and the armistice between Germany and France contributed in no small part.
And against the backdrop of growing tensions between the US and China, the two countries do not want war. World history shows that, since 1500, the two leading powers have been at war no more than half the time, but the period during World War II shows that historically they have been at peace.
We are becoming smarter and more tolerant
Bill Gates writes in Enlightenment Now that the world average IQ is rising by 31 points every decade. The brain of a child is now developing more fully thanks to food enrichment and cleaner nature.
"Think about how much information you interpret only when looking at your phone or map on the subway." Gates writes. "Our world today encourages us to think abstractly from a young age, which makes us smarter."
In addition, Gates notes that until 20 centuries ago it was legal in only 20 countries to be gay. Today, this applies to more than 100 countries. A Legatum study shows that residents in 11 countries see more tolerance today than they did 10 years ago.
Female representatives continue to gain political power, now accounting for more than 1/5 of the members of state parliaments. The world listens when women raise their voices against discrimination and sexual abuse.
Technology can save the planet
I admit, I have a lot of things that scare us about artificial intelligence. It can be used by tyrants to endanger jobs. At the same time, history is full of examples where technology leads to more progress and development than problems. Advanced technologies could improve health and even take the fight against climate change.
Quantum computers can assist in this fight through simulations that would reveal new carbon capture catalysts that are cheaper and more efficient than current models. A tool that scares carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere can become one of our most powerful weapons in the fight against climate change.
We have yet to find out if 2020 will be the year of the optimist. It is they who are best prepared to find the right solutions.
Source: CNBC
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