Statistics show that it is more likely that NFP today will miss ecpectations

05.08.2016 / 11:05

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Data about Non Farm Payrolls from 2007 up to now shows that data is below expectations in 53,5%, higher than expected in 45,5% and with expectations in 1% of the time. This makes it more likely for us to expect worse than expected data in more of the cases.

If we check the data in consequence June - July data we can see interesting correlation:

Remark: data is in thousands and the next two columns show the % difference of under or over performing data.

There is no case from 2007 up to now that data for June is better than expected and be followed by a better than expected data for July. In 78% of the time data from June and July is different in missing or outperforming expectations. In 22% of the time we have match which is for lower than expected data in two consequent months.

Statistically it is more probable for today that we see a little worse than expected data at 15:30 about NFP from USA.

Jr. Trader Nikolay Georgiev

Varchev Traders

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Statistics show that it is more likely that NFP today will miss ecpectations

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