Stock futures stumble ahead of GDP as Dec. rate hike odds move up

Stock futures pointed to opening losses for Wall Street on Thursday, ahead of gross domestic product data, which have taken on more importance as the Federal Reserve left open the possibility of an interest-rate hike in December at its latest meeting.

Dow Jones Industrial Average YMZ5, -0.43% futures fell 90 points, or 0.5%, to 17,612, while those for the S&P 500 index ESZ5, -0.44% fell 10.5 points, or 0.5%, to 2,073.75. Futures for the Nasdaq -100 index NQZ5, -0.58% fell 29 points, or 0.6%, to 4,644.75.

Stocks initially dipped, then rallied into the close Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee left key policy unchanged, but signaled in its statement a rate hike still could happen at its December meeting. The more hawkish-than-expected statement threw a curveball at markets and futures were indicating investors could walk back those gains on Thursday.

Kit Juckes, global strategist at Société Générale, said the market is now pricing in odds of a December hike at nearly 50%.

“If markets don’t tighten financial conditions for them, if the U.S. data remain firm, if global events don’t scare them and if the sun shines every day, the Fed will raise rates at their December meeting,” said Juckes, in a note to clients.

Focus on GDP: And that also puts the focus on data watching, with important third-quarter GDP numbers coming at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists polled by MarketWatch are expecting a 1.8% rise, after a 3.9% gain in the second quarter.

“There will certainly be a lot more noise from the dovish camp when the GDP data will hit the wire, provided that it is weak, and going forward, we could see the enthusiasm built by the Fed for a rate hike in December fading,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, in a note.

Weekly jobless claims are coming at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, then at 10 a.m., the pending home-sales index for September.

Stocks to Watch: Ahead of the market open, Time Warner Cable Inc. TWC, +1.04% Altria Group Inc. MO, +0.62% ConocoPhillips COP, +3.19% MasterCard Inc. MA, +1.69% will report earnings.

Starbucks Corp. SBUX, +1.28% and LinkedIn Corp. LNKD, +1.62% will report after the bell.

GoPro Inc. GPRO, +7.01% was off 15% in thin premarket trade after the maker of small action cameras posted a big earnings and sales miss.

Shares of Allergan PLC AGN, +0.50% jumped 14% in premarket on news the Botox-treatment maker was recently approached by Pfizer Inc. PFE, +1.31% about a merger deal, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Other markets: European stocks were under slight pressure, with the FTSE 100 index UKX, -1.01% dropping 1.1% on losses linked to weak results from banks and energy companies. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +0.36% rose 0.4% and the Nikkei 225 index NIK, +0.17% edged up 0.2% as investors looked ahead to Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting.

Hopes were fading for stimulus out of the BOJ meeting, which led to gains for the yen USDJPY, -0.26% and losses for the dollar against major crosses DXY, -0.24% Oil prices CLZ5, -0.98% were also under pressure as investors cashed in on a strong run-up Wednesday.

Read: Why oil rallied despite 5 weeks of rising supplies

Gold GCZ5, -1.30% was taking the biggest hit, though, from increased chances of a Fed interest-rate hike in December. Gold prices fell $14.70, or 1.2%, to $1.161.40 an ounce.