"At the end of the day, we are probably going to get about a million barrels a day of cuts from OPEC and that's going to drive the market into deficit," Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto. ''We are seeing communications from Iraq that they would be happy to participate,"
That only leaves Iran, which is still not on board with the formula.
On the production front, Iran has reached 4 million barrels a day. Previously, Iran had said it would come to the table for talks only after reaching its pre-sanction level of production.
OPEC will announce a deal (or no deal) at the end of the meeting on November 30, which should give a small pop to oil prices if favorable. The markets, however, will be keen to look at the numbers in the subsequent months to analyze whether the OPEC members and Russia adhere to their production quotas or whether there is blatant cheating.
Though a pop above $52 a barrel in WTI is not inconceivable, sustenance and a huge rally is unlikely, regardless of a cut.
25 Canada Square, Level 33, office 50, Canary Wharf London, E14 5LQ +44 20 3608 6256
World Financial Markets - 0700 17 600 Varchev Exchange - 0700 115 44
Varchev Finance Ltd is registered in the FCA (FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY) with a passport in the United Kingdom: FCA, United Kingdom - registration number: 494 045, which allows provision of financial services in the United Kingdom.
Varchev Finance Ltd strictly comply with the statutes of the European directive MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments). targeting increased efficiency, transparency and uniformity of financial instruments.
Varchev Finance Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Supervision Commission - Sofia, Bulgaria: License number RG-03-02-05 / 15.03.2006
The information on this site is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
Disclaimer:
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.