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The bad TRY series continues

Varchev Finance - USD/TRY expectations

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The newly formed Ministry of Treasury and Finance, which will be responsible for the growth and maintenance of the $880 billion Turkish economy, will be headed by ... Berat Al-Baqarak, Erdogan's son-in-law, who won the country's election. Through this move, the president reaffirmed his intentions to directly influence the country's finances and devalued the pound by more than 5% against the dollar in the last 24 hours. Earlier, the president also signed a decree aimed at introducing changes in the way central bank management is selected. With this action, Erdogan gives a clear signal that he intends to make his election promise by tightening control over monetary policy in the country.

Technically, the USD / TRY activates the flag formation in the upward direction, but still remains in the range between 4.5800 and 4.7800. Currently, the price is corrected to the above-already-broken diagonal flag, and I expect here to include more aggressive traders and break through to confirm with a successful test. If the price goes above the upper limit of consolidation of 4.7800, I expect the upward movement to continue. Returning the price back to the flag will cause a false breakthrough - a strong signal, after which we can expect a deeper decrease. From the point of view of the 50 and 200SMA indicators, the beacons remain, and DeMarker points up into a neutral zone.


 Trader Petar Milanov

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