The bond market does not believe the talks about US-rates-increasing within 2015.

Expectations for increasing the basic interest rate in the US in 2015, reached almost to zero. Such a decision by the FOMC on 27 and 28 October has not provided none of the 63 experts in the traditional survey by Bloomberg.

Obstacles that put the Fed in a very delicate situation are the Chinese monetary policy that on the current Session of the Chinese Communist Party will be confirmed; the declining data of Japanese exports and expectations for deepening the QE-actions by the BOJ; reduced inflation forecast by the ECB and clear message that the policy of "easy money" will continue and will be expanded.

Different directions in monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks continues creating of a number of risks that have not yet been clearly assessed by the members of the Fed. Macroeconomic data from China intensified concerns about falling demand. Emerging markets and its local currencies are far from equilibrium calm, especially with huge debt exposures in USD, deficit in foreign capital flows, declining trend of commodities and oil ... In other hand, OPEC supply maintain as high as possible without being impressed by the low prices.

Soon Fed member Daniel K. Tarullo said that it is not appropriate lifting cost of loan capital in this year.

Hedge fund Nine Alpha Capital LP commented that the bond market no longer believes talks of raising interest rates in 2015 because the Fed has gone into too much difficulty. Realistically, any active movement by the Federal Reserve now most likely cause strong negative market reaction. US Treasuries still look like yielding assets. 10-year German bonds are current yield 0.5%, UK with 1.86%, Japan 0.3%. Against this background, the decline in US T-notes with a 10 year maturity (GT10: GOV) from 2.5% in June to 2.05 percent does not change the picture, but it clearly shows that sentiment prevent possibility of raising interest rates in the US now. Remain currently forecastsabout yields to the end of the year - between today's levels and those in June (Bank of America: to 2,35%; Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs: to 2.3%). Current US macroeconomic data also not support the Fed.

Nevertheless, the volatility around the meeting as always seems guaranteed.