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The Chinese fear a "quick trade deal"

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President Trump says he is optimistic that a historic trade deal with China is yet to be concluded. But Chinese representatives are not so convinced.

In recent weeks, the two countries have agreed on the framework agreement, which should remove tariffs between the two countries and China to continue to buy more US goods and to open up to more markets. The deal seems to be a good opportunity for Beijing, given that the government is rather conservative about major economic changes.

But some of the most important details remain unspecified - such as the implementation of a mechanism to ensure that China meets the requirements and can timely remove tariffs. But representatives in Beijing remain with doubts that the final conditions would not be so favorable to China, given that Trump has the habit of changing things at the last minute.

The emerging gap between the two sides also casts doubt on Xi's plans for a Trump meeting in late March or early April to sign the deal.

In front of China, there is a clear dilemma whether Xi can fly all the way Trump's club in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, without clear and understandable terms of the deal. And persuading President Xi to attend the meeting is not an easy task, given his "trademark" being shown to the public as a sign of power.

China finds itself in a difficult position because it risks and is annoyed. Trump is unpredictable and the Chinese can not be confident he will not change his mind when he and Xi meet. But they also understand that the meeting between them is perhaps the only chance to finalize the negotiations. The Chinese share the views of Trump that he is also really determined to end the conflict.

The eventual deal would allow China to sign long-term contracts for the supply of oil, gas, soybean and other natural resources the economy needs and can produce. Beijing does not need to buy huge quantities of American products, which would endanger jobs in China in the highly dynamic and evolving manufacturing sector.

Source: The New York Times


 Trader Martin Nikolov

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