The corporate debt crisis may occur faster and more strongly in 2019.

At first glance, 2019 seems to be quiet about debt-buying investors, judging by the list of few bad debts.

But as we saw at Toys "R" US, weak sales and nerve lenders can wipe out a company long before maturity dates on loans and bonds. Moreover, the secured debt is no longer as protected as before. Companies and corporations that are heavily burdened with debt can leave too little room for the creditors to breathe if it is insolvent.

Even top-class lenders will have to lower their expectations because of different "loopholes" that have weakened their ability to raise money. Here is the question of how much money would have been lost before it reached the courtroom. This somewhat explains why debt indices show a negative return for the year, but this also creates additional opportunities for deals.

Only $ 80 billion of loans and speculative bonds worth $ 105 billion will reach their maturity in 2020, according to Fitch Ratings. The first ones to crack are companies with a dubious business model and those with the heaviest debt. The restaurant and retail sectors are not omitted.

Credit markets are not completely closed to troubled companies, but credit stress is emerging on small mid-market companies that will be the first to lose access to debt markets if an uncertain environment is formed. Not just the approach to maturity dates stress, but also the weak cash flow and the inability to access the credit markets to eliminate the concerns about solvency and liquidity.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Graphs: Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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