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The effect of UK elections over Brexit is exaggerated
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Loading...The fall of the Berlin Wall changed the history of Europe, and so did last year’s Brexit referendum. Last week’s UK general election belongs in a different category — that of the things that shine brightly in the darkness of an election night, but fade away in the harsh light of the following morning. The election is important for domestic politics, and for Theresa May. But it is almost entirely irrelevant to Brexit.
There are three main points that most people overlook.
The first is that Brexit, hard or soft, is not the UK’s decision alone. It is not even primarily the UK’s decision. The second is that the Brexit process is driven by the legal procedures of the EU, not whether commentators think a UK prime minister has a mandate or not. And finally, from a European perspective, it does not matter whether the UK has a minority government, a coalition or a governing party with a 100-seat majority. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, never achieved a result as good as Mrs May did last week.
Can Brexit still be stopped? For that to happen, an unlikely sequence of events would need to take place in the next 18 months in the right order: a fresh election won by a party that explicitly campaigns in favour of a second referendum.
Both are improbable. But even then, the reversal of Article 50 would not happen automatically. It may not even be legally possible.
A long transition period is the only way to diffuse the dispute about the exit bill. The UK would simply continue to pay into the EU budget during that period.
If the UK election is to have any impact, it will be on the length and nature of this transitional agreement, but not on the Brexit process itself.
Source: FT
Jr Trader Ivan Ivanov
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