The euro price is false limited.

The euro should already be stronger, its rise is being contained by the trend in foreign exchange.

When we examine the normal historical link between the market position in the euro and the euro’s exchange rate against the dollar, we see that the euro should already now be stronger against the dollar (around 1.28 for the EUR/USD) due to the pronounced improvement in market sentiment on the euro.

But the euro’s appreciation is being limited by:
The fall in foreign exchange reserves in oil-exporting countries due to the fall in the oil price?? This is because these countries transform some of their dollar revenues into financial investments in euros.

The fall in foreign exchange reserves in China due to the appearance of large capital outflows?? The weight of the euro in changes in China’s foreign exchange reserves is abnormally high, which correlates these changes with the euro’s exchange rate.

We see that despite the prospect of an increase in interest rates in the United States and an extension of а quantity easing in the euro zone, the euro’s true momentum ought to see it appreciate significantly, limited by central banks’ sales.