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The five most important events that will move markets this week
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Loading...1. The Fourth Annual Central Bankers Forum
Тhe World Bank Forum will be held from Monday to Wednesday in Sintra, Portugal. Bankers will pay attention to growth and investment in developed economies.
The forum will be attended by one of the most important central bankers in the world, namely Mark Carney from Britain, Haruhiko Kuroda from Japan, Steven Polos of Canada and Mario Draghi who will represent the eurozone. All of them will provide information on the current economic situation in the countries, so we will keep a close eye on their statements looking for signals on when they plan to normalize their monetary policies.
2. Janet Yellen will speak on Tuesday
Fed chairman Janet Yellen will talk about global economic problems in London from 18am GMT on Tuesday. The speech will not be specifically tied to the Fed's monetary policy, but everyone expects to ask questions about when FED is considering raising interest rates, and especially when it will shrink its massive balance of $ 4.5 trillion. Currently, market participants estimate the likelihood of interest rates rising in September to 15% and 35% in December. Although Yellen's statement will not be official and focus on the US monetary policy, we remain cautious, and with specific signals on its side, we expect a higher volatility in cross-country dollars.
3. US GDP for the first quarter - final
On Thursday, at 3:30 pm, final US GDP data will be released for the first quarter. Expectations are that the economy has grown by 1.2% year on year. In addition to the GDP report, this week's calendar includes US data on durable goods orders, consumer confidence, expected home sales, weekly unemployment claims, and personal income and expenditure, including personal spending inflation data.
We remain cautious about the dollar crosses, depending on the data of the economy that is being published, we will position ourselves with long or short positions on the dollar.
4. The euro area CPI
On Friday at 12:00, we expect euro area inflation data, with the forecast that the report will show a 1.2% rise in prices in June, compared with a 1.4% growth in May. During the week, Germany, France, Italy and Spain will produce their own consumer price index reports.
Given the growth of the euro in the last few weeks, we will closely monitor the economic environment in the eurozone, and at better data, we will look for convenient positioning positions with long positions.
5. China Manufacturing data
Friday, at 4:00, China's PMI data in the manufacturing sector will be released, with expectations for a moderate drop in the indicator to 51.0, compared with 51.2 in the previous month. Economists expect the Chinese economy to cool off in the coming months and investors will therefore not be as aggressive about worse data from the country.
However, we will monitor the development of the Chinese economy closely, indices and currencies directly related to it, such as AUD and NZD.
Jr Trader Petar Milanov
Varchev Traders Read more:
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