Economic and political news that will move the markets this week

The ECB meeting, Britain's election and James Comi's testifying will move markets this week, and we expect these events to have a positive impact on havens such as gold and Japanese yen.

1. European Central Bank Policy Meeting
The European Central Bank's latest interest rate decision is due at 14:45 on Thursday. Most of the focus will be on President Mario Draghi's press conference 45 minutes after the announcement.

With economic growth clearly shifting into higher gear and political risks declining, investors will look for clues on when and how the ECB could scale back its massive asset purchase program.

Traders are already trading rumors about a change in monetary policy, and the euro is on the rise. Against the backdrop of a weaker dollar, any reversal of the monetary policy of the ECB will lead to a sharp appreciation of the euro.

2. British General Election
Britons will head to the polls on Thursday, with voters set to elect 650 members to the Lower House of Parliament from which a government will be formed, despite some public calls for a postponement in the wake of a weekend terror attack in London, which killed seven and left 48 injured.

Opinion polls in recent days suggest the contest may be closer than the expected comfortable victory for the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Theresa May, with the Labour Party, under left-winger Jeremy Corbyn, closing the gap.

The election results will have a strong impact on the pounds, and if Teresa May loses, we expect a strong decline in the British currency.

3. Comey Testimony
Former FBI director James Comey is scheduled to testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee investigating Russia's alleged meddling in the 2016 U.S. election at 17:00 on Thursday.We expect Comy's testimony to directly affect the indices and the US dollar.

4. China Trade Figures
China is to release trade figures for May on Thursday. The report is expected to show that the country’s trade surplus widened to $47.8 billion last month from a surplus of $38.0 billion in April.

Exports are forecast to have climbed 7.0% in May from a year earlier, following a jump of 8.0% a month ago, while imports are expected to rise 9.0%, after increasing 11.9% in April.

We expect the data to have a direct impact on the highly dependent currencies of the Chinese economy, such as AUD and NZD.

5. Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting
The RBA's latest interest rate decision is due on Tuesday at 07:30.
Most economists expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged at the current record-low of 1.5% for the tenth straight meeting and maintain its neutral policy stance, as it balances the risk of rising household debt against subdued inflation and wages growth.

Jr Trader Petar Milanov

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