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- The iPhone 7 will be absolutely massive — and here is the stat that proves it
The iPhone 7 will be absolutely massive — and here is the stat that proves it
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Loading...Apple admitted earlier this year that, for the first time ever, iPhone sales went into decline. Most analysts are expecting iPhone sales to be down for the entire rest of the year. And some have started speculating that upcoming sales of iPhone 7 might be modest because it does not look like the new phone will be radically different from iPhone 6s.
But according to a note to investors from BMO Capital Markets analyst Tim Long and his team, iPhone 7 is actually sitting in front of a massive incoming wave of untapped sales.
Why? Apple has the largest base of existing users it has ever had, and those whose phones are at least two years old form the largest percentage of those users in years. Twenty-five percent of the "installed user base" is poised for an upgrade, Long believes — an audience of 120 million phones.
BMO's Long went back through the history of all iPhone sales and calculated that on average, 17% of users upgrade as soon as the next year's model comes out; 58% upgrade a year after that; and 22% the year after that. Only 2% of users hang on longer.
The iPhone 7, however, will launch into a tidal swell of older iPhone users that will be much bigger than the one that bouyed iPhone 6 to record sales. Here's the stat:
Percentage of existing iPhone users with devices that are two years old or more, at launch:
iPhone 6 (September 2014) 23%
iPhone 6S (September 2015) 19%
iPhone 7 (September 2016) over 25%
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