The most accurate economic analyst points to the greatest risks to investors in 2019

Christophe Barrau, living in Paris, is Chief Economist at Market Securities and has been named by Bloomberg as the most accurate economic analyst for the US economy since 2012. In a recent statement, he shared his forecast for 2019 and highlighted the main sectors in which investors could expect red signals. It also offers specific advice on which assets should be avoided and sectors avoided.

Barraud does not know when the next US recession will come. Economists generally do a bad job of moving this event forward, but Barraud asserts with confidence that this will not happen in 2021.

For the time being, he refrains from periods of more than 2019, and for that period he has a much more accurate and sure forecast of what can happen to the economy. For the next year, he predicts times filled with challenges and great uncertainty. Undoubtedly, the trade war between the US and China will continue to boil next year. For now, the US has imposed a total tariff of $ 250 billion on Chinese commodities, and in response, the Chinese responded with $ 110 billion in tariffs. Expectations for global trade war have risen. Namely organizations such as IMF and OECD have lowered their forecasts of economic growth next year due to the trade war. The automobile sector is already feeling the damage and from there fearing the expansion of the war. According to Barraud, their fear is that Trump will pour additional oil into the fire. Ford has announced cutbacks and BMW says their exports have shrunk dramatically to China.

Barraud has also turned his attention to the Federal Reserve and their pursuit of continued interest rates, despite the fact that the market is undergoing turbulence and Trump's public criticism of them. Another risk he notes is rising energy prices, sanctions on Iranian exports, and political uncertainty in Saudi Arabia. In short, he expects US GDP to shrink from around 3% this year to 2.5% next.

In his recommendation, Barraud still recommends US stocks instead of European ones. It is argued that several countries, such as Italy, Germany, France, Britain, are facing political uncertainty that can not overshadow such a thing in the States.

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