- Low interest rates help reduce unemployment and raise inflation.
- The rise in inflation is likely to rise quite smoothly.
- The RBA is of the opinion that rising AUD will make it harder to lift economic growth and inflation.
- Wage growth remains downward, despite the strong employment Australia has recorded in recent months.
- High levels of consumer debt remains a major problem for RBA in the future.
- The housing market, which bothered most analysts, is beginning to cool.
Technical view of AUD/USD
AUD/USD is in a long-term upward trend and the price is currently in the middle of the upward channel. Currently, the price is far from key levels to take positions, and this is mostly the result of the interest rate differential between the RBA and the Fed, as well as the weak US dollar. What impresses is that the price has reached 200SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the last upward wave and then has taken up sharply. The levels coincide with horizontal support, and the price response indicates that the area is significant for traders. Subsequent support zone testing would give us good positioning positions with long positions but too risky because they are in the middle of the upward channel. If the USD continues to fall, the pair is likely to enter a period of broad consolidation.
Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal
Jr Trader Petar Milanov
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