The market has finally followed through on the pullback we were expecting to the 2335 region from 2400 on the S&P 500 (SPX), as we have outlined. The structure of the market over the coming week will likely tell us when the next 200-point rally to 2500SPX takes hold.
The problem is that most market participants and analysts view the stock market from a purely mechanical standpoint. The common belief is that if a certain event happens, then there must be a specific stock market reaction to that event.
But, no matter how many times investors see evidence that the market is not as mechanical as they believe, they simply shrug it off by claiming that "the stock market is just not trading based upon the fundamentals at this time." The question one has to ask themselves is if the market continually does not make sense based upon fundamentals, why would you not change your premise to something that consistently does make sense?
In fact, most analysts' forecasts lag the market by as much as a year. This is simply due to the nature of the linear extrapolation in which most analysts engage when coming up with their "hindcasts," er, I mean forecasts.
"For those that have followed me for years, you know that we analyze market sentiment to identify potential turning points in the market. And, it told us to be looking to the long side back in February of 2016, and it had us targeting the 2537-2611 region in the S&P 500 over the longer term." - Avi Gilburt said.
Business Insider
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