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The top five events that will move the markets during the week
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Loading...1. Non Farm Payrolls
Employment data will be released on Friday, but investors are paying more attention on average hourly wages. This month will not be an exception. The consensus estimate is that data will show employment growth of 198,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.1%. The focus will be on average hourly wage, with forecasts for growth of 0.3% per month, and we expect an increase in salaries by 2.7% on an annual basis.
Tax reform will remain on the agenda because Congress is trying to push through a bill that could give President Donald Trump the first significant legislative change during his term of office.
2. Trade balance of China
China will release data on November's trade balance on Friday. The report is expected to show that the country's trade surplus has risen to $ 39.5 billion last month from a surplus of about $ 38.2 billion in October.
Exports are expected to rise by 7.2% compared to the previous year, after a 6.9% growth a month ago, while imports are expected to grow by 12.0% after rising by 17.2% in October, .
Delaying the Chinese market is one of the main risks to ongoing global growth, so a significant change in these data can cause some concerns. Worse data than expected will definitely shake the indices, especially after soft PMI data on production and non-production last week.
3. UK Services PMI
The British services sector survey, which will be released on Tuesday, is expected to drop to 55.0 from the previous month from 55.6.
Politics is likely to be in focus, especially when the Broxit talks are entering a key phase. British Prime Minister Teresa May will meet in Brussels with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and his chief negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier.
If the meeting on Monday is considered by Brussels to make sufficient progress, then the EU leaders could give the green light to trade talks at the summit on 14-15 December, reducing the risk of "hard bruxism".
We expect increased GBP volatility during the talks this week, and worse PMI data in the service sector is likely to see a depreciation.
4. Bank of Canada - interest rate decision
The decision on BOC interest rate is expected on Wednesday, with most experts expecting the central bank to keep its benchmark rate at 1.0%.
BOC maintained stable interest rates at its previous October meeting and said that while less incentives will be needed over time, the Bank will be cautious as it believes that future measures will be taken, given the risks and uncertainties ahead of which is facing the economy.
Market participants believe that the Canadian central bank will hold interest rates until April, mainly because of the uncertainty as to how highly indebted Canadian consumers will cope with rising borrowing costs.
5. Reserve Bank of Australia Decision on the Base Interest Rate
The latest RBA decision on interest rates this year is expected in.
Most economists expect the central bank to maintain unchanged interest rates at the current levels of 1.5% for the 15th consecutive session and maintain its neutral position on monetary policy. Given this, we expect a weak reaction from the Australian, but if the Central Bank does act or at least suggest a future, the market will react very sharply, and depending on what the comments are, sharp and big movements in AUD are not excluded.
In addition to the RBA, third-quarter economic growth data, retail sales and trade balance will also be published during the week, and we expect increased Australian government spending.
Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal
Jr Trader Alexander Kumanov
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