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The week of truth for the FX and stocks market
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Loading...We have the most busy and critical week for the forex and stock markets since maybe the beginning of the year. There are a lot of extraordinary economic news, events and fateful decisions that will determine the trends on the world markets ahead.
Even in the weekend, the madhouse will start with the news of the G7 summit in Canada, where the heads of the seven largest economies in the world meet to discuss the trade relationship. At first glance, the moods are "Trump versus the World," but surprises can always be. From this meeting, the trade balances of China, Canada and Germany depend, and if Trump does not deny import duties, there may be consistent problems to reach a compromise on the Nafta theme.
Also, let's not forget that on June 12, 2018 - Tuesday, the so-widely-awaited summit between the United States and North Korea should take place. After Trump ended up with "commercial" talks, he immediately went to Singapore to engage in "nuclear" talks. The outcome of this meeting can not be predicted, but one is clear - market participants will be watching and any surprise or move away from the leaders' playbooks will be immediately reflected on our graphs.
The new week also appears to be fateful for Britain and the pound. GBP managed to keep its profits against the dollar last week, and if the EU exit bill is adopted in the new one, a positive trajectory is ahead of the currency. Recently, political uncertainty is weighing on the pounding enthusiasm, but things may change. Market participants will soon be able to trade the macro-foundations again. If we can pass through Tuesday / Wednesday without any big surprises in parliament and the EU accept this document, the future of the pound will be bright again. The currency fell 10% after the referendum in June 2015 on leaving the EU, but analysts expect most of this loss to be back with the possible rise in interest rates in the country as well as the positive development of the Brexit talks. This so important exit bill went through countless changes and was rejected 15 times by U.K. Parliament House of Lords. Next week, we will see the final phase on his way to a lawsuit. The ongoing Brexit talks and the lack of a single point of view weigh on the pounds as politicians have failed to reach consensus on the most difficult topics of conversation: the issue of the Irish border and the customs union.
It is also an extremely crucial week for EUR. Directions are divergent, despite talks on ending the QE policy by the ECB. Central bankers signaled that they would be preparing the end of the four-year monetary stimulus program next week, but the presentation of the single currency could remain under pressure due to the latest structural policy developments in the EU. Economic analysts do not expect interest rates to rise on Thursday, but the press conference 45 minutes after the announcement will be followed shortly to hint at the future of the quantitative easing program.
The Fed will also have to decide what will happen to their monetary policy. Traders assume that the chances of raising interest rates at Wednesday's Central Bank meeting are over 84%, which if history is a factor - means a sure increase. This is most likely already reflected in the value of the dollar, but moving in a positive direction is not excluded. As they say, "buy a hearing, sell the news," so what matters in the case will be what the Fed will be and how much interest will be raised by the end of the year.
The important economic news for the new week 11.06 - 15.06.2018
Monday:
11:30 UK - Industrial Production
11:30 UK - Trade Balance
Tuesday:
11:30 UK - Claimant Count Change
12:00 Germany - ZEW Economic Sentiment
15:30 USA - Core CPI
21:00 USA - Fed Budget Balance
Wednesday:
11:30 UK - CPI
12:00 Europe - Industrial Production
15:30 USA - PPI
17:30 USA - Crude Oil Inventories
21:00 USA - Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thursday:
04:30 Australia - Employment Change
05:00 China - Industrial Production
07:30 Japan - Industrial Production
09:00 Germany - CPI
11:30 UK - Retail Sales
14:45 Europe - ECB Interest Rate Decision
15:30 USA - Retail Sales
Friday:
Tentative Japan - BoJ Interest Rate Decision
12:00 Europe - CPI
16:15 USA - Industrial Production
Trader Aleksandar Kumanov Read more:
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