The World Bank is nudging up its 2015 forecast for crude oil prices from $53 in April to $57 per barrel

The Bank reports that energy prices rose 12 percent in the quarter, with the surge in oil offset by declines in natural gas (down 13 percent) and coal prices (down 4 percent). However, the Bank expects energy prices to average 39 percent below 2014 levels.

“Demand for crude oil was higher than expected in the second quarter. Despite the marginal increase in the price forecast for 2015, large inventories and rising output from OPEC members suggest prices will likely remain weak in the medium-term,” said John Baffes, Senior Economist and lead author of Commodity Markets Outlook.

Downside risks to the forecast include higher-than-expected non-OPEC production (supported by falling production costs) and continuing gains in OPEC output. Possible upside pressures may come from closure of high-cost operations

In a special feature assessing the roles played by China and India in global commodity consumption, the Outlook finds that demand from China and, to a lesser extent, India, over the last two decades significantly raised global demand for metals and energy—especially coal—but less so for food commodities.

“China and India have played a significant role in driving global consumption of industrial commodities especially since the early 2000s. Going forward, while demand from India is likely to be a major factor in shaping consumption of industrial commodities, China will be important in driving global demand for energy given its efforts in rebalancing growth,” said Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s Development Prospects Group.