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This week is a pivotal for the US stock market
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Loading...The final week of the year will be 2015's make or break time for stocks and should also offer some important clues about the new year.
The S&P 500 is just barely positive for the year. The Dow, down 1.5 percent year-to-date.
So the closing week in a dramatic year for stocks will decide the whole year's performance for the major indexes. Down-to-the wire isn't unprecedented. Remember in 2011, when the S&P 500 closed at 1257.60, flat but lower than 2010's closing value by less than a tenth of a point.
"The whole year's been like an elevator up, elevator down. There's been no commitment to any move or direction. The question is will we hold the majority of this week's action. If the S&P can hold 2,040 for a few sessions, there's a chance when we start the year, we take out 2,090 and 2,100 with authority and we could see a stronger start for the year. That would be the bullish scenario," said Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com.
"Important for that would be for oil to hold a decent amount of the last two days' gains," he said.
JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade, said the S&P 500 could eke out a gain for the year, and the Dow could finish flat for 2015. He expects to see the market up about 3 to 5 percent in 2016. "I'm not wildly bullish by any stretch of the imagination," he said.
Kinahan said he's watching the stocks that have performed well this year to see if investors are trimming positions for tax reasons or just rolling out of positions.
"You may start to get your first hint of what sectors might start becoming the leaders of 2016," said Kinahan. He expects to see financials in a lead position in 2016, since they should benefit from higher rates and were down about 2.5 percent so far in 2015. He also expects technology to pick up. It's up 3 percent this year and should continue to do well, boosted in part by cybersecurity spending.
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