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Threat of U.S. government shutdown looms again
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Loading...2013 Redux? Shutdown Looms on Trump's 100th Day
На графиката вляво виждаме движенията на индекса на страха VIX на акциите и този на облигациите.
The threat of a U.S. government shutdown looms again. Congress will need to pass a bill to authorize funding for the federal government by April 29, Trump's 100th day in office.
While an agreement seems likely, history suggests that even a failure to fund the government may not be a terrible thing for stocks.
Shutdown history: Stocks led government, bounced back quickly
Stocks may already be discounting some risk of a government closure at the end of the month. By the time the government shut down on Oct. 1, 2013, stocks had been correcting for about two weeks. Equities bounced back for a full week before the government reopened.
Stocks are again in corrective mode in advance of potentially difficult times funding the federal government. The S&P 500 is down 2.5% from its peak reached on March 1, with the decline led by the financials sector, off 8.4% since March 1.
Sector returns in 2013 government shutdown
Since March 1, the S&P 500 has sold off more than 2%, led by the financial sector. Just two sectors -- utilities and real estate -- have survived intact in recent weeks, as the bond market rally appears to have been the principal driver of sector returns as of late. While earnings season, disappointing economic data, and geopolitical risks all could be culprits behind the current decline, the prospect of a looming government funding battle may likewise be weighing on investors' minds.
In 2013, financials led all sector losses, followed by the commodity-sensitive groups energy, materials and industrials.
Source: Bloomberg
Junior Trader Ivan Ivanov
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